Events J-WAFS Visiting Scholar Lecture on the Nile basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Lecture by Dale Whittington, Professor, Departments of Environmental Sciences & Engineering and City & Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Visiting Scholar at the Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS)
February 7, 2024 - 2:30 PM J-WAFS conference room, E38-346
For centuries Egypt has feared the prospect of Ethiopia holding back the Nile waters and has perceived this possibility as an existential risk. However, there are no analyses in the published literature that actually quantify how much harm Ethiopia could inflict on Egypt if it decided to operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) for this purpose. Now that the filling of the GERD reservoir has been completed, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia need to agree on how the GERD should be operated to best balance the interests of all three countries. This requires an understanding of the benefits of a balanced, compromise operating strategy and a realistic assessment of the risks to Egypt associated with adversarial behavior by Ethiopia.
This seminar will examine three approaches that Ethiopia could use to operate the GERD. The first approach would be for Ethiopia to operate the GERD solely for its own -financial interest, without regard for the consequences for the downstream riparians. The second approach would be to operate the GERD in a way that seeks a compromise among the interests of the three riparian countries. The third approach would be for Ethiopia to operate the GERD to intentionally inflict harm on Egypt, even if this operating policy would come at a financial cost to itself. We compare these three GERD operating policies to a counterfactual baseline in which the GERD had not been built.
This lecture will be held from 2:30-4:00 p.m. ET and will take place in the J-WAFS conference room, E38-346.
Note: This event is open to the MIT, Harvard, and Tufts communities. Please RSVP by clicking the button below to let us know you're coming.
